El Niño Is Here for ‘26-’27. What Could It Mean for Hawaiʻi?

If you've been following the weather news from Hawaiʻi, you've probably heard quite a bit about El Niño lately. And after what Lala just did to the islands, particularly the devastating flooding and damage on The Big Island, it's reasonable to ask whether this is a sign of what Hawaiʻi should expect in the months ahead.

The answer is a qualified maybe.

First, let's talk about what El Niño actually is.

El Niño occurs when a large area of the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm and the atmosphere responds to that warming. That can alter winds and weather patterns across an enormous portion of the planet, influencing everything from rainfall and drought to hurricane activity.

The latest forecasts give this year's event a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026–27.

Some of the strongest modern El Niño events occurred in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. Those are useful comparison years, but no two El Niños behave exactly alike. A very strong El Niño doesn't automatically produce a predetermined set of weather conditions in Hawaiʻi.

So what does El Niño tend to mean for Hawaiʻi?

One immediate concern is tropical cyclone activity.

El Niño can make atmospheric conditions across the Pacific more favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes. Before this hurricane season began, forecasters were already calling for an above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season, with 5 to 13 tropical cyclones possible in the basin.

We've now seen how consequential that can become.

Lala never actually made landfall in Hawaiʻi.

Yet the storm still brought tremendous rain, flooding, damaging winds, downed trees, widespread power outages, washed-out roads and bridges, and serious damage to homes and infrastructure. The Big Island was particularly hard hit, with some locations receiving several feet of rain.

It's an important reminder that a hurricane or tropical storm doesn't have to score a direct hit on Hawaiʻi to cause serious damage.

But Lala does not mean every tropical system this year is going to hit Hawaiʻi.

An above-normal hurricane season tells us that tropical cyclone activity across the Central Pacific may be greater than usual. It doesn't tell us where those storms will go.

That's why I don't think travelers should react to this El Niño by deciding Hawaiʻi is somehow "unsafe" to visit. I do think travelers visiting during hurricane season should pay closer attention to the weather than they might during a quieter year.

Then comes winter, and this is where El Niño can be counterintuitive.

You might assume that a strong El Niño means Hawaiʻi is headed for an unusually wet winter.

Historically, it's often been the opposite.

Moderate and strong El Niño events have frequently been associated with drier-than-normal conditions in Hawaiʻi from roughly November through spring.

That doesn't mean it won't rain. Hawaiʻi can still have individual storms that produce enormous amounts of rain during an otherwise dry season.

That's the difference between weather and climate. A single storm can produce flooding while the entire season still finishes with below-normal rainfall.

Extended dry conditions can also affect streams, waterfalls, vegetation, agriculture, and eventually wildfire risk.

There can be ocean impacts, too.

El Niño can contribute to unusually warm ocean conditions, changes in sea level, and larger winter surf events. Strong El Niño years have historically produced some significant wave events around Hawaiʻi.

For visitors, that makes paying attention to beach warnings even more important. A beach that was calm yesterday isn't necessarily safe today, particularly during the winter surf season.

So should you change your Hawaiʻi vacation plans because of El Niño?

At this point, I wouldn't.

I would, however, be a more weather-aware traveler.

If you're visiting during the remainder of hurricane season, keep an eye on tropical weather beginning several days before departure. If you're traveling this winter, don't assume that "El Niño" means your vacation is going to be a washout.

And don't assume that a forecast for a drier-than-normal winter means it won't rain, either.

Hawaiʻi has extraordinary microclimates even in an ordinary year. It can be pouring on one side of an island while people are sitting under blue skies on the other.

The biggest takeaway is that El Niño changes the odds. It doesn't write the forecast.

This year's event is shaping up to be a particularly powerful one, and Lala has already given Hawaiʻi a painful reminder of what tropical weather can do.

I'll continue watching it closely as we move through the remainder of hurricane season and toward winter, and I'll keep everyone here updated on what it could mean for travel to the Hawaiian Islands.